Brazil’s forecast for the 2012/13 cane crush is unchanged at 512 million tonnes of cane and 31 million tonnes of sugar according to Datagro. These figures are for center south production of between 545 and 575 million tonnes of sugar cane. The price and demand for gasoline will determine sugar output in the coming season with U.S. demand for ethanol a possible reason for increased ethanol output in Brazil as opposed to sugar. The U.S. is likely to import 2.5 billion litres of Brazilian ethanol up from 1.5 litres.
Dry weather resulted in Brazil’s 2012/13 sugar forecast being reduced by 1.5 million tonnes in September due to dry weather and lower yields. Gasoline prices and U.S. demand for ethanol are variables likely to be monitored for further changes to forecasts. Also being monitored is a possible decision by Brazil to increase the ethanol content in gasoline from 20% to 25%. This would increase ethanol production at the expense of sugar production.
The increased demand for Brazilian ethanol described above would account for approximately 35 million tonnes of sugar cane. Hence an equivalent reduction in sugar production may be anticipated.