Rabobank in its third quarter sugar report estimates the global sugar surplus for 2013/14 at 5.4 million tonnes.
The surplus is not only the fourth consecutive surplus but also with rising stocks and an increasing stocks to consumption ratio.
Bad weather in Brazil could lead to a downward revision of Center South production and a possible increase in prices. Heavy rainfall in Russia could have a similar impact on the beet crop and also see a lift in prices.
Otherwise and in the absence of new information prices are expected to see upward resistance.
The Indian Sugar Association (ISMA) stated that the sugar industry may face a difficult year with opening stocks for the 2013/14 season that commenced in October standing at 8.5 million tonnes up from opening stocks of 6.2 million tonnes for the 2012/13 season equivalent to three months demand.
ISMA estimates production during the season to be 25 million tonnes and demand to be 23.5 million tonnes.
State support may be required by the industry. Payment arrears to farmers are also expected to increase.
Crushing is expected to start after announcement of the State Advisory Price (SAP). The sugar surplus is likely to result in mills looking to export sugar putting downward pressure on sugar prices.